Banks Warned of Post-IMF Risks as Ghana Nears Exit from Programme

Commercial banks in Ghana have been urged to prepare for potential financial risks as the country approaches the end of its International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility programme, expected to conclude in August 2026.

The caution was issued by the Ghana Association of Banks (GAB), which said that while macroeconomic conditions have improved under the IMF-backed programme, the post-programme period could present new vulnerabilities for the banking sector.

Heightened Risks After IMF Exit

According to the Association, the withdrawal of IMF support could expose banks to a more volatile operating environment, particularly if global financial conditions tighten.

Potential risks identified include shifts in global interest rates, reduced capital inflows, and renewed pressure on the exchange rate, all of which could affect liquidity and funding costs within the banking system.

The Association stressed that these risks are manageable but require early preparation and disciplined financial management.

Call for Stronger Risk Controls

Banks have been advised to strengthen internal risk management systems, maintain prudent lending practices, and diversify their asset portfolios to cushion against external shocks.

The Association said institutions should avoid excessive risk-taking and remain focused on balance-sheet resilience, especially as policy buffers provided under the IMF programme begin to unwind.

Inflation and Macroeconomic Outlook

The banking industry body expressed cautious optimism about the inflation outlook, projecting that single-digit inflation could be sustained in 2026 if fiscal discipline and sound monetary policy are maintained.

Inflation has declined significantly over the past year, supported by tight monetary conditions, improved fiscal coordination, and relative currency stability.

However, the Association warned that inflationary pressures could re-emerge if macroeconomic discipline weakens after the IMF programme ends.

Banking Sector Stability

The warning comes at a time when Ghana’s banking sector is recovering from past stress and restructuring, with improved capital positions and stronger regulatory oversight.

The Association noted that preserving financial stability in the post-IMF era will depend on continued policy consistency, effective supervision, and responsible lending practices across the sector.

Outlook

While acknowledging the progress made under the IMF programme, the Ghana Association of Banks said the transition period will require vigilance, coordination, and sound decision-making to safeguard financial stability.

The Association emphasised that proactive preparation, rather than complacency, will be critical as Ghana enters the post-programme phase of its economic recovery.